Telangana Congress rising, but it has long way to go

Withthe last date for filing nominations ending last Friday, the 2023 election to the Telangana Assembly has entered a crucial phase. The ruling Bharatiya Rashtra Samithi (BRS) led by Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao is in fray in all 119 seats while the Indian National Congress (INC) has fielded its candidates in 118 seats, leaving one seat, Kothagudem, to its partner, the Communist Party of India (CPI). Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is contesting in 111 seats while its partner Jana Sena of film actor Pawan Kalyan has been given the remaining eight seats. Some other small parties are also in the fray.

Not long ago, BJP was the main challenger to BRS as the saffron party won two Assembly by-polls and put up a good show in Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) elections in the last five years. But its ignominious defeat at the hands of Congress in the Assembly polls in neighbouring Karnataka State put brakes on its surge in Telangana. The subsequent change in Telangana BJP’s leadership has apparently taken a bigger toll on the saffron party. Simply put, BJP is in a state of confusion and utter chaos in Telangana now and its alliance with Jana Sena amply reflects that.

So, though BJP and its alliance partner are in the race, the fight is now primarily between the BRS and Congress, the latter emerging as the main challenger following the renewed vigour gained in the wake of its stupendous showing in Karnataka. The continuous efforts of Anumula Revanth Reddy, the current president of Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC) and a popular leader, also helped the grand old party’s cause in Telangana.

But the moot question now is whether Congress can outwit BRS and emerge victorious in the November 30 polls.

I travelled across a few districts in Telangana a couple days back and found that the Congress, though on an upward surge, has a long way to go before it can cross the victory line. And it has to blame itself for that.

Interestingly, despite its efforts, Telangana Congress has so far failed to popularise its six guarantees, supposedly its trump card. On the other hand, even hardcore Congress supporters are able to recall what TRS is offering people this time. This is ironic for a political party, which is aspiring to come to power in the State.

“A majority of old age pensioners may go with BRS as KCR has assured to gradually increase the monthly pension to Rs 5,000. So are the physically-challenged people,” said Lakshma Reddy, a farmer from a remote village near Manthani in Peddapalli district. A traditional Congress voter, he drew a blank when asked about Congress’ six guarantees! That means Congress lacks an effective communication strategy that can take its schemes to the doorsteps of voters.

Another farmer from Bhupalpally district said that they were apprehensive that if voted to power Congress could restrict power supply to agriculture to five hours and do away with Rythu Bandhu scheme.

“Many farmers are under the impression that Congress will supply power in two spells of two hours and three hours every day. That will be a disaster for us,” the farmer retorted.

On its part, the Congress has failed to counter this narrative and convince farmers that it would, at any cost, retain 24-hour free power to agriculture and with a better supply.

It’s high time the Congress realises that banking on the party’s Karnataka strategy and anti-incumbency will not be enough for the party to turn the tide in its favour in Telangana. Karnataka was a different ball game altogether where two national parties - Congress and BJP – vied for power. Here in Telangana, BRS, a regional party, is in power. Under the leadership of KCR, as Kalvakuntla Chandrasekhar Rao is popularly known, BRS implemented some welfare schemes successfully. That was not the case with the ousted BJP government in Karnataka. So, Congress has to devise a Telangana-specific strategy to effectively take on a regional party like BRS. Blindly following Karnataka strategy will take it nowhere.

This aside, poll management seems to be another big challenge for Telangana Congress, which has not won even a single election in the last five years. Let’s save this topic for another day, but YS Sharmila’s unsolicited open support to Telangana Congress has exposed the party’s shortcomings in this space. Her support will do more harm than good and the BRS leadership is already exploiting it to the hilt. Congress leadership should have restrained her from doing so at this juncture. Further, poll management holds key in the final days.

There are other challenges as well. Maybe due to lack of candidates or the loyalty factor, Congress has fielded relatively weak candidates in several constituencies. This is more evident in and around Hyderabad. How will Congress overcome this big hurdle? To be in the reckoning, it will have to win a good number of seats in and around the State capital.

Moreover, even though Revanth Reddy is fast emerging as the chief ministerial face of Congress, a significant chunk of voters are skeptical on whether he will be given that coveted post if the party romps home on D-Day. These people are also apprehensive that a weaker CM from Congress will ruin the State. Given such skepticism, Congress can perhaps bolster its prospects if it declares Revanth Reddy as its chief ministerial candidate. This will also help the party counter the ‘dozen-Congress-CM-faces’ narrative of the BRS. The ruling party is trying to cash in on this Congress dilemma by focusing on the leadership of KCR as its Chief Minister. Will the grand old party bite the bullet?

On his part, Revanth Reddy should also tone down his language against rivals as his harsh language is not going down well with many voters. All said and done, this is the best chance for Congress to go for the kill as no political party has won a third consecutive term in this part of India till now.

On that count, the BRS is obviously facing considerable anti-incumbency this time around as it is aiming for a record third term. Moreover, the ruling party retained most of its sitting MLAs even though people are angry with a significant chunk of them. If Congress wrests the initiative on anti-incumbency against the government as well as MLAs, takes its schemes to people and effectively addresses the challenges it’s now facing, the chances are bright for it to script a good show in the November 30 polls.

Frankly speaking, this is the last chance for Congress to regain its past glory in this part of the country. Congress’ graph is on the rise because the anti-BRS vote is rapidly consolidating behind it. But it can secure a majority in Telangana Assembly only if it eats into BRS' support base. That can only happen if it convinces the electorate that it can offer a better alternative.